On the chances of the United States advancing in the World Cup

Editor’s note: This one didn’t make the cut.

HAMBURG, Germany – Apparently I am the only one in Germany who thinks the United States will reach the second round.

I’ve come to this conclusion after spending the last couple days polling soccer fans of from all over the globe about our chances in a group with the Czech Republic, Italy, and Ghana. No matter who I ask, the answer always comes back the same.

“Sorry, I don’t see how you’ll make it out, mate,” Brian replies in an Aussie drawl, echoing the sentiments of all.

Even the American fans I have talked to don’t believe we have what it takes to make it through. I’ll ask them, and they will reply, stroking their chin in a thoughtful manner, that the group is just too tough. Even my man Jeff Bradley doesn’t think we will advance!

My refutations amount to nothing. But we made the quarterfinals four years ago, and this team has improved since then, I say. We breezed through qualification, I implore. Eddie Johnson is going to be the biggest surprise of the tournament. My reasoning fails to change anyone’s mind. Quite simply, there’s one question to which there is no clear answer:

If the United States goes on, who from our group goes home?

I can only offer my highly unscientific opinion. I see the following scenario as the most likely: The United States beats the Czech Republic in the first game, loses against Italy, and plays against Ghana for a spot in the second round. After a hard-fought, 2-1 win over Ghana, the United States emerges with six points and advances, along with either the Czech Republic or Italy, into the second round.

Unfortunately, these sentiments are anything but commonplace. For some reason, the defeatist attitude that has infected supporters is threatening to spread to the players. Defender Steve Cherundolo told ESPN.com that the confidence of the team is a little low for his taste. All of our players freely admit that our No. 5 FIFA world ranking is too high. I strongly hope that they don’t believe this and their humble statements are only part of the time-honored tradition of refusing to give the opponent bulletin board material.

No matter. I still believe, because when I look at our team, I see the best team our country has ever fielded. Looking at out probable roster, I see:

Two midfielders – Landon Donovan and DaMarcus Beasley – who are still in their 20’s. Not too many countries have players at the peak of their athletic abilities already have a successful World Cup run under their belts. I feel very comfortable with Run DMB and the Golden Boy starting the attack.
Three players – Kasey Keller, Claudio Reyna, and Brian McBride – who could easily sport the captain’s armband. These veterans will provide composure at each level of our team, marshalling the younger players and controlling the tempo.
Two young players – Eddie Johnson and Oguchi Onyewu – who are playing for their futures. Both are trying to make big-money moves to upper-echelon European clubs.

To put it in terms of American sports, the Cup is like a worldwide contract year that comes along every four years. Johnson has already come out in the media to say he is tired of playing in the United States. He’s tired of the second banana nature of the sport and wants to play in front of full stadiums and singing, passionate fans one can only find on this side of the Atlantic.

Gooch is playing in the Belgian League but he won’t be there for long. Speculation has linked him to English team Middlesborough, among others, and a solid audition in the next weeks could cause his market value to skyrocket.

We’re skilled at every position. Our backs, Cherundolo and Eddie Lewis, have proven to be adept crossers of the ball and will be targeting McBride if we manage to hold onto possession enough to allow them to come forward.

How can you have any doubts when you look at the team we will be putting on the field?

I believe we will advance. When I look at the players we have, how could I believe otherwise?

Other notes from Germany:

As I write this, I am sitting in a café in the port city of Hamburg. Businessmen scurry in and out of this Starbucks clone in their business suits, while I sit and take in the scene. Unlike them, I have nothing but time on my hands.

Down the street, the United States team rests in their plush, downtown hotel, guarded by about 19 levels of security.

It’s been written about before, but the security presence around the team is something to behold. The police barricade the downtown streets to allow the guys to make it to and from their training ground in the northern suburb of Norderstedt. When they are training, a dozen Germans with machine guns stand sentry at the entry to the HSV training facility.

Sure, the United States is the only team not to have its flag on the side of its charter, but that doesn’t mean their hard to find. Just look for a whole bunch of angry-looking Germans holding machine guns and the US shouldn’t be far away.